How Well Does Population Change in China Fit with the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) - Akshaya

Prior to 1949 China had experienced a century of imperial decline, natural disasters, foreign invasion and civil unrest. This resulted in life expectancy being as low as 36 years; during this period of time China was in stage one of the demographic transition model with high birth and death rates , resulting in a relatively steady population size, fluctuating due to epidemics and baby booms. China then entered the second stage in 1949 when the communists took over, as they began to modernise China. This shift to economic development led to a 10% annual growth rate in the economy between 1949 and 1958. Death rate and infant mortality fell due to a very successful healthcare programme and better nutrition. However, birth rate remains high (34.03 per 1000 in 1957) due to the traditional view of more children being needed to work the land and guarantee the parents security in old age remaining; this is characteristic of countries in stage two of the DTM. This led to rapid natural increase.

However, China then began to stray from the framework of the DTM when Chairman Mao implemented the Great Leap Forward policy in 1958. The political mismanagement and low agricultural production led to widespread famine and caused 25–30 million deaths, and a 30-35% fall in the birth rate. The death rate rose higher than the birth rate and the population experienced 5 years of natural decrease. This was followed by a baby boom in the mid 1960s, which allowed the economy and population size to begin recovering. 

However, in the 1970s the huge population threatened to outgrow the available resources. In 1979 the One Child Policy was implemented in order to reduce the population size to a sustainable number. In 1979 one quarter of the global population lived in China. The policy was ultimately successful in achieving its goal, as it prevented 400 million births. During this period China appeared to return to the model and be in stage three, with a low death rate and declining birth rate leading to slow population growth. Now, China is in stage 4 of the demographic transition model, with relatively low birth and death rates (18.9 per 1000 and 7.65 per 1000 in 2016 respectively) and population size. Stage 4 is considered the most stable stage of the model, and is the stage most MEDCs are in, such as the USA, France, etc. 

In conclusion, China initially and more recently fits in rather well with the DTM, however there is definitely a period of time where it strayed drastically from the model. This is largely due to Great Leap Forward policy and its aftermath, but it ultimately did reach stage 3, despite its economy being rather developed for a country at that stage, and then stably reached stage 4 of the model. The relatively low levels of international migration to and from China means that the country fits with some stages of the DTM better than most, as the model does not take this into account.